01-01-2015 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW: HAPPY NEW YEAR

31-12-14 DAY PERFORMANCE: WISH HAPPY NEW YEAR 2015

31-12-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

30-12-14 DAY PERFORMANCE:

NIFTY PERFORMANCE:

Today Nifty played with influence of Peer Indices.  Due to year end (to FIIs) market played volatile as we mentioned in our yesterday note.  Even though Global Peer Markets could not support, our Nifty closed flat, after re-testing its day lows of 8220.  In second half of the session, bank nifty given good support to recoup the Nifty/Market and to close in green.  Major sectors like FMCG, Metal, Oil & Gas and Realty sectors gone through profit booking.   As tomorrow is last trading day for year 2014, we can hope for the best from market.

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)

HINDALCO: BUY > 156 TRG 159/161 SL 154

                      Actual: Low: 154.75; High: 157.80 (played high to low)

RELIANCE: BUY > 894 TRG 902 SL 890

                     Actual: Low: 877.65; High: 898.50 (hit the SL)

DLF: SELL < 137 TRG 134 SL 139 
         Actual: Low: 134.30; High: 138.20

We wish you all the best for tomorrow trades. 
 

30-12-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

Yesterday Nifty made upward consolidation with little volatility. By holding Nifty at 50 DMA, lower base was increased from 7900-8100.   Early trades were supported by Asian Markets and Media News regarding "Make in India" concepts and objectives announcement by FM.  Indian metal & auto sectors were overwhelmed with support and gained than others.   After the Land Acquisition Bill announcement, most of the realty sector stocks have lost their most of the gains.  As well as after Europe Markets opened, our other indices also started giving up its gains and finally Bank Nifty closed in red.   As there is sign of strengthening of USD, our Rupee depreciated by 0.11 ps and closed at 63.67.

Yesterday FIIs are net buyers in Derivative Market by 1834.61cr and net sellers in Equity Market for the worth of 204.22cr. FIIs are positive buyers in Index Futures and mostly in Options Products.  DIIs are net buyers in Equity Segment for the worth of 360.38cr by which market breadth sustained its positiveness.  Technical Indicators are mixed with Positiveness in Directional Indicators and Negative in Money Flow Indicators.  Derivatives OI range was intact between 8000-8400 along with active range of 8200-8400.  As we mentioned highest 8600 CE and 8100 PE were added, which gives us broader range of market for shorter period.  PCR created little gap (0.08pts) and closed at 0.88.   India Vix gained by 0.12 pts and closed at 14.58 which gives us indication regarding options accumulation.

Today morning all our Asian Peers are running with mixed gains and our SGX Nifty also lost its opening gains and running in green with minimum points (8pts Positive) by 8 AM.   Our Nifty also may open flat with positive bias and likely to get support at 8215/8180 level and may get resistance at 8320/8340 level.

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS:

Pivot: 8246

Resistance: 8278/8311/8343

Support: 8214/8182/8149

NIFTY FnO BAN: NIL

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)

HINDALCO: BUY > 156 TRG 159/161 SL 154

RELIANCE: BUY > 894 TRG 902 SL 890

DLF: SELL < 137 TRG 134 SL 139 

 

29-12-14 DAY PERFORMANCE:

NIFTY PERFORMANCE:

Today Nifty started positive and traveled with in our radar range of 8200-8280.  It has not cared any much the Bangalore Bomb explode.  As we mentioned, due to month end market moved volatile within the range. We saw some stock specific action particularly Metal Sector, based on 'Make In India' news driven by media and morning session support from our Asian Peers.  In Second half, market could not get any support from Europe market, still it could hold almost 50% of day gains.  As per media reports so far Central Govt. could use less than 30% of plan budget in key sectors, and now we/market may hope for productive spending in coming days. 

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)

RECL: BUY > 332 TRG 340 SL 327

           Actual: Low: 334.75; High: 341

EXIDE: BUY: 172 TRG 176/180 SL 170

             Actual: Low: 176.20; High: 180.55

JSWHL: BUY > 926 TRG 937/944 SL 918

              Actual: Low: 931.20; High: 951

NCC: SELL < 80 TRG 78/76 SL 81.50

          Actual: Low: 79.35; High: 81.75

29-12-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

Friday market got consolidated through premium adjustments.   Due to Festival Holidays market went through sub-dude volumes.  Our DIIs have picked some value stocks.   As advance tax money and other saving money related to tax-saving has pumped to market through fund houses, which generally pick value stocks for long term horizon.  Also news driven pics also taking in the market.   Due to year end PMS and other HNIs are likely to re-write their portfolios, which may invite volatility in the market.  As many short term investors and other delivery based traders are away from market, their portfolios seems to be hedged with index options.  Highest addition of 8600 CE and 7900PE indicate this protective action in the market.  But Derivative Highest OI remain in the range of 8000-8400. As market technical improved with DIIs participation, and Derivatives active range is also between 8200-8400 market likely to be in this range for couple of days. Unless Nifty Spot closes above 8350 on EOD basis, up trend can't be re-established.

Friday, FIIs are marginal net buyers in Equity for the worth of 39.97cr and DIIs are net buyers for the amount of 417.29cr.   In Derivative Section also FIIs are net buyers for the value of 1014.43cr out of which major contribution is 970.74 cr of Index Options.  In Index Futures segment FIIs have added 2789cr shorts and 960 longs for netting of 1829cr sales by decreasing OI of 3749 contracts.   But in Index Options FIIs have added 33415 Longs and 5826 shorts in the system in which major addition taken place in 8600 CE and 7900PE, which indicate the volatile market in coming days.  Rupee closed at 63.56 by loosing 0.04ps.  PCR also gained 0.08 (narrowed vacuum)  and closed at 0.96.

Today our Nifty may open positive in line with Asian Peers and SGX Nifty, if it has not cared the Bombing incident at Bangalore.  Nifty may get support at 8200 and 8270/8280 may act as resistance.

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS:

Pivot: 8194

Resistance: 8241/8281/8327

Support: 8154/8107/8068

NIFTY FnO BAN: NIL

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)

RECL: BUY > 332 TRG 340 SL 327

EXIDE: BUY: 172 TRG 176/180 SL 170

JSWHL: BUY > 926 TRG 937/944 SL 918

NCC: SELL < 80 TRG 78/76 SL 81.50

 

26-12-14 DAY PERFORMANCE:

NIFTY PERFORMANCE:

Today Nifty made exercise to take away excess fat in Nifty Futures' premium. As we mentioned in our morning note Nifty Futures lost almost 50% of its premium from 103pts to 69pts.  Some stocks specifics, which related to News driven strips like JSL, Spicejet and some of the PSU banks have gained more than normal.   Some of the Value based (higher book value than market price) have picked up by the investors, which must be for long term investment.   As Market was dominated (from last couple of days) by DIIs, domestic players like infra stocks are in movement for time being.   From 5th onwards only we can see some more volumes in the system and there by the healthy movement.

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)

SAIL: BUY > 81.80 TRG 82.75 SL 81

           Actual: Low:  79.90 High: 82

PURVANKARA: BUY > 82 TRG 83.20 SL 79

                            Actual: 79.50; High: 81.90

 

TCS: SELL < 2488 TRG 2458 SL 2512

         Actual: Low: 2466.70; High: 2510.90

We wish you happy week end.

26-12-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

Nifty Derivatives new series starting with much more premium against its previous closing as well as Spot Nifty.   Obviously it will be minimise  to its realistic premiums during today's trading.   Most of the Global Indices also re-started after its Festival Celebrations.   As per new series derivatives, Nifty trading range is between 8000-8400.   Most of the technical indicators are indicating that market neither in over sold or over bought zone.  But Nifty has been closed below 50 DMA with selling pressure on 24th.   As many economic reforms are being re-reinforcing by Govt., even though some of the bills were not passed in Parliament, market will take as positive and stocks specific action will be taken place.   Also, within a week time, 3rd quarter going to end in this financial year, stock values will be calibrated against its realistic value Vs. prospectors of that sector.   All these 2 months (till budget session) portfolios and market will be re-organised in related to Economic Survey, Budget Proposals and Fundamental Values, we have to be careful while trading.   SL maintenance is become must, as Market is per-dominated by Institutional players and FIIs, average trading volumes will be high (strip wise) and levels breaking will be easy while trading.

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS:

Pivot: 8205

Resistance: 8255/8336/8386

Support: 824/8074/7992

NIFTY FnO BAN: NIL

STOCKS FOR THE DAY:

SAIL: BUY > 81.80 TRG 82.75 SL 81

PURVANKARA: BUY > 82 TRG 83.20 SL 79

TCS: SELL < 2488 TRG 2458 SL 2512

24-12-14 DAY PERFORMANCE:

NIFTY PERFORMANCE:

Nifty faced selling pressure at last 30 Mnt. time and closed again below 50 DMA.   Nifty could not hold either 8250 or 8180 level also as we expected and it has broken up to 8155 level.  Surprisingly Nifty January Futures premium is above 100 pts (8275 Vs 8174) than the closing price of present month Nifty Futures.  Obviously same difference carried over between Closing Price of Spot Nifty and Jan. Nifty Futures price. As we mentioned in our morning note, today Indices does not played much.  Only Stocks specifics, particularly Infra Stocks gained much than others.  In indices also, only Infra Sector Indices closed in Green.   We can expect news collection after the proposed PSU Banks Review by our PM on 3rd Jan., and there in action in specific bank stocks.  PSU banks consolidation (amalgamation) and unlocking (SBI subsidiaries) of its net worth is on schedule, we should watch this sector with much care.

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)

SREIINFRA: SELL < 49 TRG 47/46 SL 50.50

                   Actual: Low:  47.60; High: 49.50

TVSMOTORS: SELL < 246 TRG 241 SL 252

                       Actual: Low: 244.90; High: 255 (most of the day above selling price)

 

MADHUCON: BUY > 34 TRG 40 SL 32 (30 ON POSITIONAL)

                     Actual: Low: 34.15; High: 37.70 (formed open/high)

 

TITAN: SELL < 377 TRG 371 SL 381 

           Actual: Low: 369.10; High: 375.50

 

We wish Happy Christmas.  

24-12-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

Yesterday Global Indices given mixed results.  But Dow been closed with Life Time High, with the up beat in GDP figures.    Our Nifty played as it suppose to be (volatile) before the derivatives end session.   It has honored both 20 DMA and 50 DMA levels and given room for good roll overs.   Derivatives OI for Jan, 15 has been increased to 8500 level from  present level of 8400.  8200 base consolidation indicates, that our Nifty likely to be in upside for short term.  Traders can hold Nifty positions, once Nifty closed above 8250 level.   In Index Option Positions also Longs are higher than Shorts in the system, which indicate, that Traders are on Bullish side.  As most of the Global Indices are closed for next two days in view of Christmas, our Domestic Traders may not look at Global Indices and may act on stock specific.

Yesterday also FIIs counters have continued their buying Derivative Section (all products) 2363.54 cr mostly Index Futures & Options.   In Equity Segment FIIs are net sellers for the worth of 444.93cr and DIIs are net  buyers for the worth of 444.93cr.   As equity segment faced profit booking at Mid & Small cap segment, Market Breadth of under pressure.  Rupee closed at 63.44 by loosing 0.21 ps.   PCR improved marginally and closed at 0.99.  India Vix shot to 16.1 level which indicate booking of Options.  Technical Indicators indicate volatility.

Today Nifty likely to open flat and may play in the range 8220 and 8330 level.   Short term traders may go long in Nifty with 8180 SL.

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS: 

Pivot: 8295

Resistance: 8336/8407/8449

Resistance: 8225/8182/8113

NIFTY FnO  BAN: HDIL, IBREAL, UNITECH

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)

SREIINFRA: SELL < 49 TRG 47/46 SL 50.50

TVSMOTORS: SELL < 246 TRG 241 SL 252

MADHUCON: BUY > 34 TRG 40 SL 32 (30 ON POSITIONAL)

TITAN: SELL < 377 TRG 371 SL 381

23-12-14 DAY PERFORMANCE:

NIFTY PERFORMANCE:

Nifty had resistance at 8365 as we mentioned the resistance level of 8370.  Even though morning session Nifty has shown the bullishness, could not sustain at resistance level, and got corrected to the level of 8250 level, which can be treat as respective supportive area of 50 DMA.  As tomorrow Nifty's near month derivatives session is going to close, we can expect good volatility along stock specific action.  Today India Vix also closed near to its 20 DMA after it touching 16.11 level, which gives indication about accumulation options in the system.

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)
HDFC BANK: Buy > 950 Trg 957/972 SL 948 (JAN CE will be better option)

                     Actual: Low: 955.60; High: 973.85

                     960CE: Low: 26.65; High: 36.90

JINDALSTEEL: BUY > 143 TRG 149 SL 140

                       Actual: Low: 143.90; High: 149.25

 
SUPRAJITENG: BUY > 135 TRG 142 SL 130

                        Actual: Low: 139.15; High: 146.50

Let us hope this Christmas Lights will show us the Profit Making Ways to all of us.

23-12-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

Nifty started good roll over exercise with positive note.  Next Month  Nifty Futures (Jan) series are showing > 60pts premium.   OI increased positions also seconding this roll overs, which sounds the Bullish mood of our Investors/Traders .  Relating to yesterday's trades, Nifty had good volatility and closed above 50 DMA (after 10th Dec).  Global Indices also have given good support to market.   All most all Global Indices also closed in Green, which generally face profit booking before festival holidays.   Positive news on GST Front, Action on Commodity Supplies and Unlocking of SBI group value, has given boost to the general volatility, which generally happens before any settlement (near futures) time.  Global Crude price and US GDP also positively taken by traders, which they preferred to be in Longs Side.

Yesterday, in our Market FIIs are net buyers in Derivative segment (total products) by 886.18cr, with OI reduction for more than 9%.   FIIs have continued their buying in Index Options (871.50) on second day also.  In particular to Index Futures section, FIIs are net buyers of 5260 for the value of Rs.106.17cr by adding 99753 longs and 94493 shorts (which may included roll overs) by increasing OI of 194246 contracts.  As we saw over all participation of all indices, market breadth also improved.  But PCR was shunted to over bought zone by recording 1.03.   Rupee managed to close at 63.23.   Derivative OI was narrowed down to 8200-8400 from its earlier range of 8000-8500.   Active range maintained between 8200-8300 level.  

Morning most of Asian peers turned to negative by 8.00 AM from its positive opening.   Our SGX Nifty started with new series and followed the same trend.   Our Nifty also may open flat and likely to get resistance at 8370/8380 level where our 20 DMA is established.   

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS:

Pivot: : 8294

Resistance: 8361/8397/8463

Support: 8258/8191/8155

NIFTY FnO BAN: HDIL, IBREAL, UNITECH

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)
HDFC BANK: Buy > 950 Trg 957/972 SL 948 (JAN CE will be better option)
JINDALSTEEL: BUY > 143 TRG 149 SL 140
SUPRAJITENG: BUY > 135 TRG 142 SL 130
 

22-12-14 DAY PERFORMANCE:

NIFTY PERFORMANCE:

Today Nifty run within our radar.  As we expected Nifty ran up to 8331 level with support of Bank Nifty. Global Indices also supported our Market.   Today almost all Sector Indices have participated, which contributed to broad based participation.    As we left with one working day for old derivatives' closing, tomorrow also we may see volatility in the market, which we need to take caution.  

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN) 

VIPIND: SELL < 110 TRG 104 SL 116

             Actual: Low: 110.15; High: 114.90 (not initiated trade)

PETRONETLNG: BUY > 200 TRG 204/206 SL 197

                          Actual: Low: 198; High: 210 

LIBERTYSHOES: BUY > 243 TRG 252/266 SL 235

                           Actual: Low: 245.95; High: 270.90

We wish you all the best.

22-12-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

Friday Market closed in Plus (with red candle), but with negative sense as it could not close above 50 DMA, even with the help of short coverage and accumulation of fresh shorts at high.  As most of the professional FIIs are going in holiday, some other will be busy in balancing their Portfolios and our Domestic PMs are busy in re-build their Portfolios by considering the Advance Tax Numbers and Govt. Priorities, we may see more action on Stock Specific and Thematic Pics at market corrections.  As these kind of action mostly we see from HNI & PMS organisations, volumes will be high and obviously Technical Levels will not be honored by that specific stocks.

Friday, FIIs by concentrating/accumulating more on hedging tool of Index Options (2042.89 cr alone), derivatives section recorded 2280.30cr buying.  But in Equity Segment FIIs are net sellers by 668.85cr and DIIs are net buyers for almost all the same value of Rs.622.77cr.  Related to Index Futures, FIIs have added Longs and Shorts in the system for 17601 contracts and 21925 contracts respectively by netting 79.95 cr of sales, by which Index Futures OI increased by 39526 contracts.   As we got mixed buying in Equity market, Market Breadth marginally improved, but closed with sellers domination. Rupee lost 0.25 and closed at 63.25.   PCR created little scope to improve and closed at 0.91.   Even though Derivatives OI range not changed, active range changed to 8200-8300 and Maximum Options added 8350 CE and 8000 PE which indicate middle term trading range.

As all Asian Indices are running with positive note along with our SGX Nifty, our Market also likely to open with positive note (may gap up) and Nifty may get first resistance at 8280 and 2 nd resistance at 8320.   Day traders may close their longs and take shorts at 8320 level with 8360 SL.  As 24th is near derivative contracts are going to close, pl keep in mind about the premiums and positions.

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS:

Pivot: 8232

Resistance: 8256/8287/8311

Support: 8201/8177/8146

NIFTY FnO BAN: HDIL, IBREAL, UNITECK, WOCKARD

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN) 

VIPIND: SELL < 110 TRG 104 SL 116

PETRONETLNG: BUY > 200 TRG 204/206 SL 197

LIBERTYSHOES: BUY > 243 TRG 252/266 SL 235

19-12-14 DAY PERFORMANCE:

NIFTY PERFORMANCE:

Today Nifty opened with gap up in line with our SGX Nifty and in continuation to yesterdays quick start.  By and large Nifty had absolute flat week by closing 8225 against its previous week closing of 8224.  Holding with reasonable correction is a good sign for bull market in a situation of over run.  As we got only 2 working day in between of Derivatives session, next Monday and Tuesday Market will be more volatile.   As you all know, 24th onwards most of the Global Share Markets will be closed for Christmas, till 1st week we can not get any clues from overseas markets.  Only news related Advance Tax and other Indian Economy related will be feeder element to our Markets, by which we can expect stock specific movement than over all market.

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN) 
KOTAK BANK: SELL < 1254 TRG 1239 SL 1268 (WAIT FOR NIFTY RET. JOURNEY)
                            Actual: Low: 1232.10; High: 1262.60

IBULLHSG: BUY > 448/455 TRG 455/465 SL 436/447 (BASED ON OPENING)
                     Actual: Low: 451; High: 464

RECL: BUY > 327 TRG 335 SL 320
           Actual: Low: 326; High: 335.85

PFC: BUY > 292 TRG 306 SL 282
         Actual: Low: 292.80; High: 302.50. 

We wish you all the best and Happy Week End.

19-12-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

Nifty had pull back rally by taking clues from GST Bill introduction and Global Indices.   As we know, news based spikes can not sustain for long.  But, as Nifty taken correction to respective level, Nifty may try get consolidate by re-testing its recent low of 7960 level.   Once, this exercise completes before 10th Jan, Stocks specific action can be expected.  Till this time market may move with the range of 7950-8300 level.

Yesterday FIIs have bought 1628.20cr in Derivatives Segment.  But they are net sellers in Equity Segment for the worth of 874.29cr.  Since, volume pick taken place in most of mid & cap segment, Market Breadth also improved.   DIIs have bought 648.17cr in Equity segment.   In Index Futures, FIIs have added Longs (15473) and Shorts (13736) for almost the same volumes, with net off 36.09cr value 1737 contracts, by which Index Futures OI has been increased by 29209 contracts.  Rupee gained by 0.53pc and closed at 62.99.  PCR also shot up by 0.06 pts and recorded 0.99.   Derivatives OI range has not changed.  Options OI indicate the trading level is as 8250-7950.  All most all Technical Signals turn positive, except MACD which gives us an idea as; Market is in Sell at High situation.

Today also Nifty may open with positive note (may with gap up) in line with our SGX Nifty and there likely to face resistance in 8230/8280 levels.  Day Traders may cover up their longs (if any) above 8250/8260 levels with 8300 SL.

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS:

Pivot: 8140

Resistance: 8194/8229/8284

Support: 8104/8050/8015

NIFTY FnO BAN: HDIL, UNITECH & WACKORD

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN) 
KOTAK BANK: SELL < 1254 TRG 1239 SL 1268 (WAIT FOR NIFTY RET. JOURNEY)
IBULLHSG: BUY > 448/455 TRG 455/465 SL 436/447 (BASED ON OPENING)
RECL: BUY > 327 TRG 335 SL 320
PFC: BUY > 292 TRG 306 SL 282
 

18-12-14 DAY PERFORMANCE

MARKET PERFORMANCE:

Today market given real pull back rally after yesterday's consolidation by taking the support at 7960 level. As we mentioned in our yesterday note; Who ever Not Lost Heart today Market paid back in Tons.  The news of GST Bill roll over given quick start to Nifty. Many investors given warm welcome, there in market breadth improved.   But as all we know, this implementation process is very lengthy and we have to wait and see for final out come and there on the profits to common man.  Let us hope this exercise should not be for Change of A/c Heads and should improve revenues to Govt. to take care the society.   

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN) 

Due to un-avoidable reasons, could not able to give my "MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW" and there in stock tips.  Sorry, if i disappointed you.   See You Tomorrow with more zeal.  

18-12-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

17-12-14 DAY PERFORMANCE: not Lost Your Heart............

NIFTY PERFORMANCE:

Nifty had relief rally by playing volatile, as we expressed in our morning note.   Even though Asian Peers stood for support to Nifty, Europe Market could not encourage further.   Bank Nifty recovered from it lows with the support of PSU institutions. Even Oil sector Indice also closed in green.  Most of the stocks rebounded from its lows to the respective levels.  Indian Vix gained so sharply to level (19.06) of July 10th and later cool downed and closed at 16.92 with 0.62pts gain. 

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)

JINDAL STEEL: SELL < 134 TRG 130 SL 136

                            Actual: Low: 125.05; High: 133

CANARA BANK: SELL < 412 TRG 400 SL 419

                               Actual: low: 390; High: 412.80

IOB: SELL < 57 TRG 53 SL 59

          Actual: Low: 53.20; High: 56.05

 

COALINDIA: BUY > 355 TRG 360,370 SL 344  

                       Actual: Low:  359; High: 371.85

Stock Market repeatedly proved that; Lost Money can recover, if you have not Lost Your Heart.  But Timely Action is much needed to Reserve Your Profits.

17-12-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

Nifty was pushed to over sold zone, with continues fall.   Even though strong support lies at 7850 level for Nifty, 2 or 3 days Nifty may try to get consolidate at 8000 level which may take support at 7940-7980 level.  As Bank Nifty broken its 20 DMA level, some more weakness may see from this indices.   Adheres reports from Russia and other Oil producing Countries' Economic Growth is in stake, market sentiment weakened further.   Reasons for Inflation, need not be only Low Production Cost, Low level demand (due to low purchasing power) also may be one of the reasons.   Rupee Depreciation indicate Higher outflows of USD, which may increase worry about Fiscal Balances.  Even though, Crude Price is more advantageous to India and Inflation is within control, Rupee depreciating and Trade Balance is became much worry.   Unless Trade Balance improves, if any increase in Crude prices will becomes much negative to India.

Yesterday also FIIs have continued their selling in Derivative and Equity Segment for the worth of  1800.56 and 1247.24 cr respectively.  But DIIs are in buying side for the worth of 534.60 cr.  In Index Futures, FII added 19636 Shorts and Sold 5084 Long contracts for worth of 556.99cr by which OI decreased by 14555 contracts.   As the Mid & Small indices also faced selling pressure, Market Breath weakened further.  Rupee Closed at 63.65 by depreciating 0.85ps.   India Vix increased by 16% (recent high) by closing at 16.30, which indicate Options writing.  Bolinger Bands negative divergence and Improvement of Derivatives Lower Base indicate, shortly market is going to face pull back .

As most of our Asian Peers have recovered from day lows, let us hope the same with our Nifty.   Day traders can go long (in return journey) above 7980 with 7940 SL.

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS:

Pivot: 8103

Support: 8017/7966/7880

Resistance: 8154/8240/8290

NIFTY FnO BAN: HDIL & UNITECH

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)

JINDAL STEEL: SELL < 134 TRG 130 SL 136

CANARA BANK: SELL < 412 TRG 400 SL 419

IOB: SELL < 57 TRG 53 SL 59

COALINDIA: BUY > 355 TRG 360,370 SL 344 

 

16-12-14 DAY PERFORMANCE: on sliding board...........

NIFTY DAY PERFORMANCE:

Nifty still on Sliding Board and its become very difficult to hold.  Good News related to Economy and Crude Prices also could not hold the Nifty at 8150 level.  Since one more support level (8150) is broken by the Nifty, we have to depend upon next supporting level of 7870/7850.  Today except IT & Technology Indices, all other Indices put the pressure on Nifty.   Due to adhere reports from Russia, Pharma Sector could not support the Market, irrespective of Rupee slide.  Since, technical levels are looking for further down, it may not be wise to buy the Market at this level.  Any how inverters can go for stock specifics, which may be based on fundamental value for short and longer term basis.

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)
EVERONN: BUY > 38 TRG 42/44 SL 36
                     Actual: Low: 35.70; High: 40.80 (SL broken at late hours and opened with open high pattern)

DHFL: BUY > 410 TRG 421/445 SL 406
            Actual: Low:405.30; High: 430.25 (SL broken at late trades)

                  
DLF: SELL < 147 TRG 142 SL 151
         Actual: Low: 137.65; High: 145.70
 
TITAN: SELL < 367 TRG 362/358 SL 372
             Actual: Low: 355.60; High: 365.30
   

16-12-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

Yesterday Nifty had pull back from it lows by taking support from its Trend Support (weekly charts) of 8150 level.  WPI data and Crude Prices also supported the pull back and closed with flat note irrespective of Global Indices selling.   FIIs have continued their selling in Derivatives and Equity Segment for the worth of 1743.44 and 455.72cr respectively.   DIIs have continued their buying in Equity Segment by 136.02.   Due to profit booking in mid & small cap segment, market breadth weakened further.   Rupee lost 0.28 ps and closed at 62.81.  PCR Reported 0.89 by loosing 0.03 pts.  In Index Futures FIIs have bought 6638 contracts net worth of 178.62 cr.  FIIs have added 7622 Long Contracts and 984 Short Contracts by which 8606 contracts OI increased.  Todays' Trade Balance Report may influence the weak sentiment and may initiate further selling.   Even though derivatives options OI range in tact between 8500-8200, 7900 PE and 8300 CE have been added in the system, which indicate the trading sentiment of traders.  As 8200 PE and 8300CE are more active among the range.   India Vix closed above 14, which indicate writing of options in the system and expecting selling pressure at highs.

Our SGX Nifty running in red for than 60 pts and Asian Peer Markets are running in mixed note, our Nifty also may open with negative bias and try to test yesterday's lows (8150).

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS:

Pivot: 8205

Resistance: 8257/8295/8347

Support: 8167/8114/8077

NIFTY FnO BAN: NIL

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)
EVERONN: BUY > 38 TRG 42/44 SL 36
DHFL: BUY > 410 TRG 421/445 SL 406 
DLF: SELL < 147 TRG 142 SL 151
TITAN: SELL < 367 TRG 362/358 SL 372 

15-12-14 DAY PERFORMANCE:

NIFTY PERFORMANCE:

Nifty had a day of consolidation, even though Global Indices and WPI numbers are encouraging.  But it has halted at weekly trend line support area of 8150.  Total day Nifty played below its pivot levels.  As every opportunity is using to sell by investors, Nifty could not recover much even with Europe Market support.   As 19th FDI investment meeting is going to held on infra projects and Advance Tax Figures are going to report, stock specific action can be much more awaited in this week.

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)

TATAMETALIK: BUY > 134 TRG 141/152 SL 131

                             Actual: Low: 136; High: 145.70

RELIANCE: SELL < 892 TRG 872 SL 904

                     Actual: Low: 872.40; High: 880.90

 

LICHSGFIN: SELL < 442 TRG 430 SL 450  

                      Actual: Low: 431.10; High: 443.65

We wish you happy trades.

15-12-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

Friday Nifty hold at 50 DMA by loosing more than 69 pts.  Non of the Global Indices or our Economic Data Supported the market to recover from its day lows.   Recently, Share Market going through new trend; ie correcting along with commodity prices like crude.   In general, crude price reduction, use to take by the Market as one of the clue for positive closing.  Presently, even though Crude getting corrected, Share Market (sensex) also lost more than 1480 pts from 4th Dec., onwards.  As 8100 PE highest number of contracts  have got opened in the system, Bears must be trying to take the Market further down to 8070 level where the Fibonacci 62% correction level is there.  But Bulls are looking to pull back the market to above 8400 level by opening highest number of 8450 CE options.  Traders may take this level as trading range.

On Friday FIIs are net buyers in Derivative Segment (total) for Rs.554.99 cr.  In Index Futures session also FIIs are net buyers of 14,549 contracts for the worth of 351.66 cr.  FIIs have added 37,670 Longs and 23,121 Short contracts in the system by which Nifty Index Futures OI has been increased by 60,791 contracts.   But In Equity Segment FIIs are net sellers for the worth value of 864.96cr and DIIs are net Buyers for the value of Rs323.41cr.   PCR closed at 0.86.  Rupee closed at 62.53.  

Today also our Asian Peers have opened their a/c with minus (but Nikkie recovered almost 200 pts from its lows by 7AM), and our SGX Nifty also running in Red with > 50Pts.   As cash flow indicators are in over sold zone and we are expecting WPI positive nos., Nifty may try to take support at 8070/8100 level.  Since, most of the Technical Indicators (particularly cash flow indicators) are in over sold zone, further shorts may not be advisable and may book partial profits in their short positions or PE positions or hold with strict SL.

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS:

Pivot:  8254

Resistance: 8291/8360/8398

Support: 8186/8148/8080

NIFTY FnO BAN: NIL

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)

TATAMETALIK: BUY > 134 TRG 141/152 SL 131

RELIANCE: SELL < 892 TRG 872 SL 904

LICHSGFIN: SELL < 442 TRG 430 SL 450 

12-12-14 DAY PERFORMANCE: unless we have Trading Plan.......

NIFTY PERFORMANCE:

Today also Nifty joined with the gang of global indices (all major indices in red by the end of our market) and hold at its supporting area of 8200 level, which we mentioned in our morning note.  Today also our market analysis proved as right,  as we are following technical trend and analysis of available data to arrive market levels.   As some body saying, High IQ, Higher Education, Good Capital, Experience and Ambitions will not work all the time, unless we have Trading Plan.  More than that we need psychological strengths to keep our emotions in control to able to Target and to have Stamina to get it.   Even though many may not have the Fantastic Friday, our Blogger Followers as usual had Fantastic Friday, as almost all our Nifty and Stocks moved as per our expectations.

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)

M&MFIN: SELL < 314 TRG 304 SL 321
                  Actual: Low: 296: High: 315

JKLAXMI: BUY > 406 TRG 410/418 SL 404
                   Actual: Low: 406.15; High: 418

PATINTLOG: BUY > 132 TRG 139/148/159 SL 128 
                        Actual: Low: 127; High: 157.70 (played tricky ie high to low)

12-12-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

Yesterday our Nifty played as per music of Global Players.   Nifty likely to test its 50 DMA (8200 level), where Fibonacci Level support (8180) in coming days.   Present PE open interest also seconding this opinion.  Adding 8200 PE and 8400 CE  OI, indicates the trading range for day. 

Yesterday also FIIs are net sellers in Derivative (total) for 1335.32cr.  In Index futures section also FIIs are net sellers of 32924 contracts worth of 723.53cr, by adding 28380 Short contracts and Square off 4544 Long Contracts, which effects the increase of OI by 23836 contracts.  In Equity Segment also FIIs are net sellers for the worth of 808.27cr and DIIs have continued their buying for the value of 431.93cr.  PCR created some vacuum and recorded 0.81.  Rupee closed at 62.52 by losing 0.26ps.  Derivative Highest OI range is between  8300-8500 by reducing 100 pts in both levels.  Oil Prices reduced further and increased worry to mid-east countries.

Almost all Asian Peer Markets recovered from its negative opening and running in green.  Our SGX Nifty also recovered from it lows and turned positive.  Our Nifty also likely to open flat and may be range bound till Europe Market Opens.  If 8180/8200 acts as strong support for Nifty and once it taken support pull back rally will be very sharp.

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS:

Pivot: 8304

Support: 8260/8225/8185

Resistance: 8337/8380/8412

NIFTY FnO BAN: NIL

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)

M&MFIN: SELL < 314 TRG 304 SL 321

JKLAXMI: BUY > 406 TRG 410/418 SL 404

PATINTLOG: BUY > 132 TRG 139/148/159 SL 128 

11-12-14 DAY PERFORMANCE:

NIFTY PERFORMANCE: 

Total day Nifty played below the Pivot level of 8350.  As Asian Peers are volatile, our Nifty also followed the same.  But time being its taken support at 8270 level, with in the range of Highest PE open positions.  As media reporting, global markets are in worry about oil price drop and there by its economic growth.  Higher oil prices are very much needed for some countries like Russia and Middle East Countries to survive.  As there is substantial pressure even from US (US based co.'s crude production cost is more than present market price) for reasonable oil prices, it likely to get adjusted in coming weeks time.  Europe and US financial year ending pressure also one of the reason for profit booking (which our Fund managers forgotten from 2010).

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)

LICHSG: BUY > 445 TRG 450/464 SL 437

                Actual: Low: 466.70; High: 460.10

 

HAVELLS: SELL < 321 TRG 296 SL 335

                   Actual: Low: 280.25; High: 304.80

 

INFY: SELL < 1969 TRG 1954 SL 1980
           Actual: Low: 1915.95; High: 1960

Let us hope for another Fantastic Friday.  Wish you all the best.

11-12-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

With Insurance Bill introduction, news on payment banks and oil prices have influenced more on Bank Nifty and supported Market to recover from its lows.   Stocks specific action and bottom fishing helped to increase market breadth.   Short coverage and protectionism forced to increase the derivative OI to 8400 - 8600.  Options open interest higher adding taken in 8550 CE and 8250 PE, which indicate the hedging range positions.

Yesterday FIIs have taken the advantage of market news and technical values and went for coverage of their positions.   FIIs are net sellers in total derivatives session for the worth of  1915.49cr.  Particular to Index Futures FIIs are net sellers  of 35810 contracts worth of 845.07cr, by adding 21573 Shorts and square off 14237 Long contracts, which contributed net decrease of OI by 7336 contracts.   In Equity Segment FIIs are marginal net buyers by 5.39cr and DIIs are net sellers for the worth of 519.05cr.  Rupee losses 0.49ps ground and closed at 62.26.  

Today most Asian Markets drastically recovered from it lows and turn volatile.  Our Nifty also may open flat to negative in line with our SGX Nifty.  Market wait for Europe market to take clues.  Yesterday lows may act support to Nifty.

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS:

Pivot: 8350

Support: 8322/8290/8263

Resistance: 8382/8410/8442

NIFTY FnO BAN: NIL

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)

LICHSG: BUY > 445 TRG 450/464 SL 437

HAVELLS: SELL < 321 TRG 296 SL 335

INFY: SELL < 1969 TRG 1954 SL 1980 

10-12-14 DAY PERFORMANCE:

NIFTY PERFORMANCE:

After 2 days fall, Market closed with flat, as we see calm after thunder falls.   Even though Bank Nifty gave support, as we mentioned in our morning note, Nifty could make only 15 pts, at closing.  Global indices and Media Reports regarding Insurance bill etc, have supported the Nifty.  As Nifty has taken support at 8300 level and other Asian Markets closed with mixed results, tomorrow morning session will be critical to short term traders.   

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)
UCOBANK: SELL < 84 TRG 80 SL 86
                      Actual: Low: 81.50; High: 84.10

ICICIBANK: SELL < 353 TRG 347 SL 356
                       Actual: Low: 346.85; High: 354.90
 
IOC: BUY > 347 TRG 352 SL 344
         Actual: low: 343.65; Hgh:  349.75

TECHNOFAB: BUY > 138 TRG 143/147 SL 136 
                          Actual: Low: 137.10; High: 147.70

We wish you happy trade.

10-12-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

Nifty almost reached the point, where it started getting consolidation (8300) to higher levels.  At 8280 it is going to  reach the level of 61% (which consider as one of the support area) out of the Nifty performed range between 7724 - 8627.  Also Bears seconds this support by adding maximum 8300 PE in the system.   Bulls are targeting 8500 by adding maximum 8500 CE in the same time.   Derivatives OI highest range also reported as 8400-8500 by reducing its higher range from 8600 to 8500.   All  this gives us an idea about the Nifty's present (may valid only for one day also) range as 8300-8500.  

Yesterday FIIs are net sellers of Derivatives Segment by (selling of stocks futures and adding index futures) for the worth of 255.49cr.  In Index Futures FIIs are net buyers of 210.49cr worth of 13090 contracts, by adding 23765 Long Contracts and 10675 Short Contracts.   By which, Index Futures OI has been increased by 34440.   In Equity Segment also FIIs and DIIs are net sellers for the worth of 221.52cr and 345.38 cr respectively.   Since all-round selling pressure prevailed, Market Breadth also weakened.  Rupee closed at 61.77 by gaining 0.05ps.  Movement and Volatility indicators turn positive, which guides us about possible pull back.  PCR recorded 0.91 by narrowing gap by 0.02%.

After 2 days drastic fall, our Asian Peers, China and Hangseng opened with positive note.  But our SGX Nifty is running with 35pts minus (at 7.45 AM) along with Nikkie's negative opening.  As good support is at 8300 level for our Nifty, day traders may go long or cover up shorts if any at this level with 8280/8250 SL.   As sentiment became question mark, by end of the day, Nifty may close flat.

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS:

Pivot: 8372

Support: 8299/8257/8185

Resistance: 8413/8486/8527

NIFTY FnO BAN: NIL

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)
UCOBANK: SELL < 84 TRG 80 SL 86
ICICIBANK: SELL < 353 TRG 347 SL 356
IOC: BUY > 347 TRG 352 SL 344
TECHNOFAB: BUY > 138 TRG 143/147 SL 136 

09-12-14 DAY PERFORMANCE:

NIFTY PERFORMANCE:

Our Nifty was influenced with Global sell off and today also broken the technical supports.   All most all indices performed very poorly except some pharma stocks.  To China market fall is much more influenced than any thing and continued selling 4th day in a row.  With in 2 trading sessions, Nifty lost almost 200 pts against the last week's loss of 67 pts.   Let us hope for better tomorrow and let us continue to depend only on delivery base trading for time being than intra-day as we mentioned in our morning note.

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN) 
IDFC: SELL < 158 TRG 156 SL 160
           Actual: Low: 153.05; High: 158.10

JAINIRRIGATION: SELL < 81 TRG 78.50 SL 83
                                Actual: Low: 78.60; High: 81.70
 
SBI: SELL < 314.50 TRG 311 SL 317
        Actual: Low: 305.40; High: 314.60
 
NDL: BUY > 48 TRG 50/54 SL 47
          Actual: Low: 50.15; High: 53.20
 
MAHINCIE: BUY > 236/241 TRG 241/251 SL 232
                     Actual: Low: 234.95; High: 250.75

If you analyse  our stock recommendations, you will agree with us, that who fallows market trend and technical signals along with fundamental values, theirs success rate will be better than blind traders.

09-12-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

Selling signal was triggered by Infosys promoters by downloading their holdings in bulk.  Other IT sector giant TCS also joined hands (technical weakness) with Infy, by which the Markets' technical levels were broken and created panic to traders.  As long term investors like FIIs have taken advantage and bought Equities highest volumes after 26/10 (4662.91) for the value of Rs.4984.60cr.  Even DIIs have joined and bought for the worth of 1030.65cr.  Weak profiled traders and retailers obviously got panicked, by which the Market Breadth was fallen.  PCR also created vacuum and recorded  0.89 by loosing 0.11 pts.   Rupees was strengthened by 0.09ps and recorded at 61.83.   In Derivatives segment FIIs are net buyers for the worth of 310.89cr.  Derivatives OI range also widened to 8400-8600 from its earlier range of 8500-8600.   In Index Futures FIIs are net buyers of 60.29 cr worth of 9684 contracts.   FIIs have added 18114 Long contracts and 8430 Short contracts into system, by which OI has been increased by 26544 contracts.

As we mentioned in our yesterday note, once Nifty closes below 8470 level, short term down trend has started by breaking its 20 DMA.  As cash flows are dominating the market along with positive sentiment (on overall Indian Economy), stock specific and opportunistic buying will take place, which may encourage pull back rallies in the market for time being.   Traders has to maintain longer SL, if they are trying to go for any short positions. Now onwards positional trades with SL may be more advantageous than intra-trades.  Below 8460, Nifty may try to get Trend Line Support at 8400 & 8350.  For time being Nifty resistance established at 8580/8600 level.

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS: 
Pivot: 8472
Support: 8398/8358/8284
Resistance: 8512/8586/8626

NIFTY FnO BAN:  NIL


STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN) 
IDFC: SELL < 158 TRG 156 SL 160
JAINIRRIGATION: SELL < 81 TRG 78.50 SL 83
SBI: SELL < 314.50 TRG 311 SL 317
NDL: BUY > 48 TRG 50/54 SL 47
MAHINCIE: BUY > 236/241 TRG 241/251 SL 232

08-12-14 DAY PERFORMANCE:

NIFTY PERFORMANCE:

As we mentioned in our morning note, Nifty acted as per its technical indication. But it have gone down more than we expected, which might be due to combined effect of positions square off and new shorts.   Even global indices of Europe and US are not supportive for the entire day. 

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)
RELCAP: SELL < 525 TRG 510 SL 533
                 Actual: Low:  512.20; High: 530.90

TCS: SELL < 2600 TRG 2550 SL 2628
          Actual: Low: 2505.50; High: 2587.75
 
LIBERTYSHOES: BUY > 263 TRG 265/268 SL 260
                             Actual: Low: 256; High: 267.15

SINTEX: BUY > 96 TRG 99/103 SL 94.50
               Actual: Low: 100.05; High: 104.80