01-12-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

Nifty playing in the range of 8500-8600 and Friday we had more elevated closing.   Prevailing Crude prices and Prospective GDP data expectations have supported Nifty to have good starting of new derivative series.  Nifty Futures premium also sustained almost at same level due to existing bullishness.  FIIs have bought 77337 contracts worth of 1933.53cr.   In Index Futures FIIs have added 65417 Long Contracts and  11920 contracts squared off by which 53497 OI was increased.   In Equity segment also FIIs are net buyers for the worth of 935.86cr and DIIs are net sellers worth of 439.31 cr.    As mid-cap and small-cap not participated much on Friday Market, Market Breadth was closed negatively.   Rupee also closed negatively by loosing 0.48ps.   PCR again shunted to over bought zone.  Derivatives OI range was concentrated at 8500 along with active range of 8500-8700.  Friday late hours GDP was announced weak numbers but better than expected.   Crude Prices have come down further to the level of 64 USD.

Today Nifty may open with negative bias in line with our Asian Peer Markets.  Today Nifty may play between 8530-8630 levels.

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS:
Pivot: 8574

Resistance: 8631/8675/8732

Support: 8530/8473/8430

NIFTY FnO BAN: NIL

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN) 

Bharatforge: Sell < 967 Trg 955 SL 977

Coal India: Buy > 353 Trg 360 SL 349

Orient Cement: Buy > 149 Trg 152 SL 147

28-11-14 DAY PERFORMANCE:

NIFTY PERFORMANCE:

We had another Fantastic Friday in a row.  Last Friday Nifty gained 77 pts and today gained 94 pts by throughout all Europe Peer indices' negative influence and Technical Resistances.   Crude made more positive impact and added strength to the Investors.  Most of the traders are hoping interest cut from RBI as inflation threats are thrown to distant in the view of Crude Rate, Cash Flows, US Unrest and our FM's encouragement/proposal to reduce interest rate.   RBI may try to take more time to reduce interest rates on same grounds, as all these are plus points for Indian Industry.

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN) 

ABAN: SELL < 583 TRG 568 SL 594 (wait for Nifty trend reversal)

             ACTUAL: LOW: 545.10; HIGH: 578

UTTAMSTEEL: BUY > 70 TRG 72 SL 69

                          ACTUAL: LOW:  69.80; HIGH: 72

TATAGLOBAL: BUY > 158 trg  160/163.50 sl 156
                          ACTUAL: LOW: 159.75; HIGH: 163. 75

We wish you all Happy Week End.

28-11-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

Derivatives Previous Series has put new path to Nifty by pushing its range to 8400-8600.  Global crude praise is supporting to Equity Market.  Our Markets' positive environments like, Strong Govt., Well Controlled Inflation, Prospective GDP Growth, Friendly Economic Norms, Peace in the Country are well taken by Global Investors and trying to increase their stake in Indian Markets.   This is reason our Nifty trying every day to scale new highs. 

If we see other side of the coin, Low Participation of Indian Customers, Expected USD strength, Controlling or Trying to Influencing by many agencies (through RBI, SEBI, Finance Ministry, Excise Dept, Customs Dept. Income Tax Dept. Legal Dept. ) are threat to our market.  Any negative news from any corner may disturb the upbeat of investors.   Since, our present market is mostly controlled by FIIs, HNIs, PMS Organisers & MFs,  trading volumes are high and in return its become very easy to break technical levels either side.   That is reason momentum of Market became very sharp.

New Series of the Nifty started with much wider range, i.e. Derivatives OI range between 8000-8500.  Nifty Futures OI also started with > 2cr.  But PCR is < 1.00.  India Vix also closed below 13 pts after touching its resistance level of 17 in previous session.  Since, excess premium has to be adjusted, and is week end, today Nifty may play range bound and get adjust its variations.

As Global Crude price is encouraging and our GDP Data expected (mostly after trading hours), our SGX Nifty is opened very positive (nearly 50pts), our Nifty also may open with positive note any may be with gap up and off late it get adjust.  As Trend Line resistance is at 8600 level, day traders may go for short at 8565/8580 level with 8600 SL.

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS:

Pivot:  8486

Resistance: 8515/8536/8566

Support: 8465/8435/8414

NIFTY FnO BAN: NIL

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN) 

 ABAN: SELL < 583 TRG 568 SL 594 (wait for Nifty trend reversal)

UTTAMSTEEL: BUY > 70 TRG 72 SL 69

TATAGLOBAL: BUY > 158 trg  160/163.50 sl 156

27-11-14 DAY PERFORMANCE: after Modi Mania...........

NIFTY PERFORMANCE:

We are happy to see the Nifty closing at 8494, even though we are wrong at predicting (8420-8450) the closing.  As many times we uttered Only Market is Hero.  No individual can hold Market, because it is joint effort of Mob.  This series Nifty gained almost 330 pts, that too with one side journey. Non of the day (out of 18 trading days), Nifty went below than its previous series closing of 8169.   

Hope Nifty will see new highs in coming days, and pray God to keep us also at that Highs.   In this Jubilant Mood we should not forget the Highs we reached (almost 1900 pts after Mr. Modi Mania Started), and keep SL for every trade.

 

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)

MOTHERSONSUMI: SELL: < 428 TRG 423 SL 432
                                   ACTUAL: LOW: 420.70; HIGH: 429

ZEEL: SELL < 378 TRG 370 SL 384
            ACTUAL: LOW: 366.15; HIGH: 378

SAIL: BUY > 86 TRG 88.50 SL 85
           ACTUAL: LOW: 86.20; HIGH: 89.95

B/F CALLS:

RELINFRA: SELL < 594.50 TRG 572 SL 609 (DEC PE WILL BE BETTER)

                   26-11-- ACTUAL: LOW: 585.20; HIGH: 607 (Can carry with 624 SL)

                                580 PE (dec): LOW: 1350; HIGH: 22.75 

                    27-11-- ACTUAL: LOW: 594.70 HIGH: 611.45 (BETTER TO EXIT)

RCOM: SELL < 103 TRG 99 SL 107 (DEC PE WILL BE BETTER)               

              26-11--ACTUAL: LOW: 101.50; HIGH: 104.70 (With 108 SL can carry)

                         102.50 pe (dec): LOW: 4.65; HIGH: 5.50 

               27-11--ACTUAL: LOW: 102.30 HIGH: 106.75 (BETTER TO EXIT)

27-11-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

Today FIIs (US) may be in the celebration of "Thanks Giving Day", but they will not give away our Market in near future.   This is witnessed through hectic roll-over exercise on 2nd day also.  Pull back happened so strong Nifty Futures (near) OI has been dragged to < 1cr level and December Nifty Futures OI interest improved more than 30%, which indicate longs roll over happening to December. Considering the Nifty positions and its Trend, this series may close between 8420-8450 level.

Yesterday FIIs have added Longs and Shorts in Index Futures for 32639 and 27610 contracts respectively with net effect of 5029 plus.   By that OI increased by 60249 contracts for the value of -113.95 cr.   In Equity Segment FIIs have bought 181.46cr and DIIs have continued their selling for the worth of 314.64cr.  Due to bottom fishing Market breadth was improved than previous and closed in positive. Still PCR maintains its over bought indication and closed with 1.06.  Day technical Indicators were not much improved except Momentum Indicator.  Derivatives OI was improved from 8300 to 8400 level and it indicates between 8400-8500.   Rupee maintained its levels with 0.10pts gain.

Today morning most of our Peer Markets opened with mixed note and our SGX Nifty also running flat, our Nifty also likely to open flat and off late may be volatile in order to Near Derivatives Session closing.  Day traders may depend on momentum trades than technical calls with strict SL which can be individual capacity.

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS:

Pivot: 8472

Resistance: 8505/8533/8566

Support: 8442/8410/8381

NIFTY FnO BAN: GMRINFRA, HDIL, RELCAPITAL.

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)

MOTHERSONSUMI: SELL: < 428 TRG 423 SL 432
ZEEL: SELL < 378 TRG 370 SL 384
SAIL: BUY > 86 TRG 88.50 SL 85

B/F CALLS:

RELINFRA: SELL < 594.50 TRG 572 SL 609 (DEC PE WILL BE BETTER)

                   26-11-- ACTUAL: LOW: 585.20; HIGH: 607 (Can carry with 624 SL)

                                580 PE (dec): LOW: 1350; HIGH: 22.75

RCOM: SELL < 103 TRG 99 SL 107 (DEC PE WILL BE BETTER)

              26-11--ACTUAL: LOW: 101.50; HIGH: 104.70 (With 108 SL can carry)

                         102.50 pe (dec): LOW: 4.65; HIGH: 5.50

26-11-14 DAY PERFORMANCE: some times out of boundaries...........

NIFTY PERFORMANCE:

Based on existing numbers and positions,(buying pattern and indices positions) we have assessed this kind of movement and same have been informed through our morning note.  Many might have enjoyed the movement as it is with in our suggested lines.  

For more success some times we have to go out of boundaries, same way here also, who are holding out of range positions are practically enjoyed.   For example who are holding 8600 pe and 8200 ce (on positional basis) from last 10 days,  might be real winners of this series.  

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)

BHEL: BUY > 258/263.50 TRG 263/268 SL 260 (WAIT FOR NIFTY TREND REVERSE)

            ACTUAL: LOW: 263.35; HIGH: 273

 

ZEEL: BUY> 388 TRG 394/402 SL 385 (WAIT FOR NIFTY TREND REVERSE)

           ACTUAL: LOW:  373.10; HIGH: 387.115 (Not initiated call)

RELINFRA: SELL < 594.50 TRG 572 SL 609 (DEC PE WILL BE BETTER)

                    ACTUAL: LOW: 585.20; HIGH: 607 (Can carry with 624 SL)

                    580 PE (dec): LOW: 1350; HIGH: 22.75 

RCOM: SELL < 103 TRG 99 SL 107 (DEC PE WILL BE BETTER)

              ACTUAL: LOW: 101.50; HIGH: 104.70 (With 108 SL can carry)

              102.50 pe (dec): LOW: 4.65; HIGH: 5.50

ALWAYS ASSETS SHOULD ACCUMULATE, WHEN THEY ARE GOING THROUGH CORRECTION, BUT NOT IN BOOM PHASE.

SAME WAY ONLY POSITIONAL INVESTORS SHOULD AVERAGE WHEN MARKET ON CORRECTION, BUT NOT TRADERS (WHO ARE KNOWN FOR SHORT LIVED).

26-11-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

Yesterday Market went on correction which was due for long time.   Market never wait for our conviction, it will act more dynamically.   Yesterday Nifty Futures lost 30.99% OI and shunted OI levels to 1.30 cr in a day, which indicate, that traders have utilised yesterday's correction for roll-over their positions to next series.   That is reason, late hours Nifty had good pull-back.  Yesterday mid-cap and small-cap faced more correction than large cap. Most of the time this kind of this kind of technical weakness used for short coverage by FIIs, today also may try to continue.  Yesterday also, FIIs have utilised this correction and added longs in equity segment.  But they have protected with Options.  As we are only 2 working days away for new series of Derivatives session, we can expect good volatility.  Due to short coverage and roll-over exercise we can not rule out pull back from pivot support levels.

Yesterday, FIIs have recorded good amount  (688.29 cr) of selling in this series, for the worth of 25108 contracts.   Still PCR is recorded 1.16, which indicate, market over bought position.  FIIs have added 20649 shorts and squared off 4458 long contracts in Index Futures by which OI increased by 16191 contracts.  In Equity segment FIIs have bought 1168.94 cr and DIIs have sold 732.12cr.  Market breadth recorded very weak (298 plus vs 1263 minus).  Rupee almost sustained.   Non of the day (technical) indicators closed in green.   Derivatives OI has been reduced by 100 pts i.e 8600 to 8500 level.

Today our Nifty may open with negative bias/flat in line with our peer markets and as per prevailing weak sentiment.   If Nifty opens below 8460 level, 8415/8370 may act as support.

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS:

Pivot: 8476

Support: 8416/8370/8310

Resistance: 8522/8582/8629

NIFTY FnO BAN: GMRINFRA, HDIL & IBREAL

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)

BHEL: BUY > 258/263.50 TRG 263/268 SL 260 (WAIT FOR NIFTY TREND REVERSE)

ZEEL: BUY> 388 TRG 394/402 SL 385 (WAIT FOR NIFTY TREND REVERSE)

RELINFRA: SELL < 594.50 TRG 572 SL 609 (DEC PE WILL BE BETTER)

RCOM: SELL < 103 TRG 99 SL 107 (DEC PE WILL BE BETTER)

25-11-14 DAY PERFORMANCE: before we go to terminal.........

NIFTY PERFORMANCE:

Today market went on correction on News Square off (one bad news against one good news).  Yesterdays' China's economic news squared off by our SEBI's P-Notes (cash inflows) issue.   That's reason, yesterday evening, we mentioned about short lived markets and advised to be cautious with SL.  Till the Near Derivatives session closes, market likely to be volatile in order to exercise roll-overs and and square-off/profit booking, long term investors can make Opportunistic Buy to bring down their holdings average cost.   Till Market holds above 8280 long term investors can be on long side on SIP basis.

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)

HINDZINC: BUY > 166 TRG 168/171 SL 165

                 ACTUAL: LOW: 163  HIGH: 170.95 (SL HIT)

 

IRB: SELL < 267 TRG 262 SL 271

        ACTUAL: LOW: 253.70 HIGH: 266.50

 

ARVIND: SELL < 289 TRG 285 SL 293
              ACTUAL: LOW: 272.45  HIGH: 289 

Most of Investors Trade to average their purchase cost..
Traders/Gamblers most of the time/initially try to multiply their capital.  Off late they try to save their capital.
We have to decide, what we want to do? before we go to terminal.

25-11-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

Yesterday Nifty has been pushed to new slot from 8500 level to 8600 level.  Except FMCG & Health Care Indices, all most all Indices positively participated in yesterdays market.  Derivatives OI pushed to new range of 8300-8600 from its earlier range of 8300-8500 level.   After a week time, FIIs have added positions in derivatives apart from short coverage.  Irrespective of FIIs adding in Derivatives also, Nifty Futures OI has been come down i.e to < 2 cr  level, by reducing OI 9.84%, which might be in the event of roll overs. 

Yesterday FIIs have added 2918 Long contracts and 3531 Short contracts in Index Futures for the net worth of 49.63cr. by which OI increased by 6449 contracts.   In Equity Segment FIIs are net buyers for the worth of 407.42cr and DIIs are net sellers for the value of 162.78cr.   Due to low participation of mid-cap and small-cap indices, market breadth closed with negative bias.  PCR still maintain its over bought zone and record 1.12.  Rupee closed at 61.86 by loosing its value of 0.09ps.   India Vix also closed with negative bias which indicate Options writing in the system.  Due to volumes drive, sentiment factor, and profit booking, technical indicators are giving mixed directions (negative divergence).

Today almost all Asian Markets are running with negative range, except our SGX Nifty (running flat), our Nifty also may open flat and play range bound 8480 - 8565.   Below 8480 Nifty may try to get support at 8400 level.

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS:

Pivot: 8518

Resistance: 8546/8562/8590

Support: 8502/8475/8458

NIFTY FnO BAN: GMRINFRA, HDIL & UNITECH

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)  

HINDZINC: BUY > 166 TRG 168/171 SL 165

IRB: SELL < 267 TRG 262 SL 271

ARVIND: SELL < 289 TRG 285 SL 293

24-11-14 DAY PERFORMANCE:

NIFTY PERFORMANCE:

Today Nifty made one more record high and closed at 8530.  Positive news from Peer Markets and with Expectations of Positive News from our Economic Front, traders are in jubilant mood with out caring much about the Market Cost (21.7 PE).   As market is driving by positive expectations and news, this momentum will be short lived and correction will be sharper, we advise to maintain SL.

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)  

HINDALCO: Buy > 159 Trg 162/164 SL 157

                  ACTUAL: LOW: 162 HIGH: 168

SUNTV: BUY > 320 TRG 325 SL 317 (OR) SELL < 309 TRG 302 SL 316 

             ACTUAL: LOW: 316.10 HIGH: 327.50

 

GODREJIND: SELL < 288 TRG 284 SL 292

                    ACTUAL: LOW: 283 HIGH: 291

 

We wish all the best for next trading.

24-11-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

Friday Nifty and Bank Nifty made 'Baraat' along with other Indices with the hopes of 'Aur Acha Din Ayega'.  But surprisingly China has done (interest rate cut) much before than our Indian Govt.   Obviously much pressure will be mounted on RBI Governor to reduce interest rates.   Today RBI going to announce CAD position, which expected positive numbers.   Winter Parliament Session also going to start from today, where there will be much Hungama  (may not be much constructive as Parliamentarians are looking for more political mailage) about other things than bills.  Once proposed Economic Bills passed, it will be added advantage to our Stock Market.

Friday FIIs have made advantage of market moment and squared off positions in Derivatives segment for the worth of 334.39 cr, which most are stock futures.   In index Futures FIIs have continued their short coverage with 15366 contracts and added shorts of 990 contracts, by which OI increased by 16356 contracts.  But in Equity Segment both FIIs and DIIs are long side for the worth of 122.50 cr and 137.59 cr respectively.  Even at this banging gains also Market Breadth recorded negative numbers.   PCR recorded 1.12.  Rupee gained with 0.16 ps and closed at 61.77.   Derivative OI range maintained between 8300-8500 but active range improved by 100 pts to 8400-8500.

Today our SGX Nifty opened with much excited way and running with 55 pts (at 8AM) plus, and other Asian Markets are running mixed. Our Nifty may open with Positive note and go volatile, due to roll over exercise.   8520 may act resistance, day traders may go short/book profit with 8550 SL and below 8480 we may see more profit booking.   8350 and 8280 have become more important to Bulls to maintain their grip.

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS:

Pivot: 8455

Resistance: 8512/8546/8603

Support: 8420/8364/8330

NIFTY FnO BAN: UNITECH & HDIL

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)  

HINDALCO: Buy > 159 Trg 162/164 SL 157

SUNTV: BUY > 320 TRG 325 SL 317 (OR) SELL < 309 TRG 302 SL 316 

GODREJIND: SELL < 288 TRG 284 SL 292

 

CHANGE IN INVESTERS OUTLOOK:

Many times, we might have not noticed many changes, which occurs dynamically or naturally.  Due to this un-noticed changes we fee odd among the group and may miss success rate.  But in practical,  change is inevitable and it may happened different to our individual taste or wish.   If we want to be comfortable, we have to accept these changes and update ourselves on  time to time.   Off late due to globalisation we had opportunity to work with different personalities and same time our traditional values/beliefs are dominated by others.  Naturally our stock market trades can't be different from this experience.  Some following outlook changes are this kind:

PREVIOUS	PRESENT
Use to be Long Term Investors	Mostly changed to Short Term Investors and Day Traders
Use to get IPOs without any premium.	Mostly IPOs issued with premium
Use to depend on Dividends & Bonus and try to accumulate stocks during this period.	Mostly Dividends Record time used to down load their short-term holdings.
Dividends and Bonus paying co. use to grade as good companies.	Now Dividend and Bonus issue cos. are being treating as non-aggressively managed cos.
After Dividend or Bonus, price of strips use to be get consolidated.	Now days, price is being corrected more than dividend and bonus value by considering tax benefits also.  In addition, % of dividend not has much value against market price.
More % of debits, use to treat as threat to companies Existing.	Excessive debit % is being looked as an opportunity to cut the cost in future there in possibility to improve PE Ratio.
Promoters holding co. use to treated as stabilised co. by considering their involvement.	Promoters holding cos. treated as ill-liquid cos. and un-professional cos.
More cash inflows (overseas credits) use to treat as extension of Break Even.	More cash in-flows (overseas credits) treated as opportunity to expansion of operations/products.
More cash reserves use to treat as cash rich company.	More cash reserves are looked as un-productive assets.
More products having companies use to treat as diversified company.	Now more products being treat as un-focused activity.
Traditionally Manufacturing sector Cos. use to attract more funds.	Presently Service Oriented Organisations being attract by investors.
Growth outlook use to measure against financial performance (eps).	Growth outlook measured against expectations & projections.
Promoters goodwill and Corporate Governance use to have more weight-age  while choosing co.	Liquidity, QoQ, YTY & PE dominates, while selecting strips.
Promoter Participative organisations use to prefer.	Promoter participative cos. treated as family concerns.  Looking for more professionals controlled cos.

OTHER OBSERVATIONS:

·         Many promoter-controlled cos. (technocrats’ promoted) have targeted by venture capital cos. or PE funds and exploited its capitalization.

·         Govt. continuing to relax FII/FDI investment limits to 50% and more levels, practically promoters will be losing their say because they may be reducing to minority stakeholders.  Once 25% allotted to public, 50%+ to FDIs allowed, promoters would left behind with minority stake of 25% or less only and obviously, concentration will reduce substantially. 

·         With dis-investment process, Govt. selling their property rights to private persons, and spending more on welfare schemes.   This is nothing but Selling Assets and Spending for Popularity.

·         One-way Govt. selling Govt. holdings to private, FDIs have welcomed with Red Carpet, but our Indian Promoters spreading their activities more in Overseas.   

·         We are paying thousand of rupees for Brand Loyalty on products (no technology required) like Soaps, Cool Drinks, Cell Phones, TV sets, Insurance Products, Retail outlets etc.

·         Many corporate (group companies) are maintaining holding companies and MF houses, which economic interest will be different from shareholders.

·         Due to globalization many organisations are forced to spend much time on managing funds than improving earnings in practical.

AAs we foresee the knowledge update is required from all sources, you may post your updates to us to enable to put tothe group. 

thanks 

ramesh

o 

21-11-14 DAY PERFORMANCE: Jodi savari....

NIFTY PERFORMANCE:

What to say to the Nifty and Bank Nifty Performance? As we are informing from last 2 sessions, about market swing, it is happened today.   Most of the people might have surprised with this JODI savary after we all saw/hearing about Nifty forming DOJI, Double Top and Flag Formation etc..  That is reason many people say, "Market is always Right and that is only Hero". 

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN) 

GATI: SELL < 294 TRG 271 SL 308

          ACTUAL: LOW: 273.55 HIGH: 294.70

 

BIOCON: BUY > 452 TRG 458 SL 448

                 ACTUAL: LOW:  455.25 HIGH: 463.30

GEOMETRIC: BUY > 140 TRG 144/155 SL 136

                        ACTUAL: LOW: 134.10 HIGH: 139.70 (NOT INITIATED TRADE)

 

We wish happy week end. Bye.

21-11-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

As we mentioned in our earlier notes, Market yesterday also played volatile on short coverage based.  This kind of range bound markets obviously makes foundation for big swing either side, which may happen either today or later.  To counter this kind of swing we can do only maintaining SL. 

Yesterday also FIIs have recorded buying in Derivative section,  that too with short coverage for net worth of 792.09cr.  In Index Futures they have squared off 8988 Long contracts and added 198 Shorts by which OI has been decreased by 9384 contracts.  But in Equity segment FIIs have sold 477.15 cr worth and DIIs have bought 101.62cr.   Market Breadth maintained its weakness.  Derivative OI range maintained between 8300-8500, but active point reduced to 8400 from its yesterdays 8500 level.  PCR recorded 1.09.   Rupee closed at 61.93 by gaining 0.02 ps.  Nifty Futures OI maintaining > 2 cr. level which indicate high level of accumulation.

Today Nifty likely to open flat in line with our Peer Markets and our SGX Nifty.  In case Nifty opens above 8400 level, 8425/8450/8480 likely to act as resistance and below 8380, 8365/8330 likely to act as support.  As today we are having week end trade, we can expect profit booking by short term traders at Market highs.

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS:

Pivot: 8389

Resistance: 8424/8446/8482

Support: 8366/8330/8308

NIFTY FnO BAN: UNITECH

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN) 

GATI: SELL < 294 TRG 271 SL 308

BIOCON: BUY > 452 TRG 458 SL 448

GEOMETRIC: BUY > 140 TRG 144/155 SL 136

20-11-14 DAY PERFORMANCE:

NIFTY PERFORMANCE:

Today Nifty totally moved as we mentioned in our morning note and with in our radar range.   Even though there is no any event or support, due to short coverage (we mentioned in our day note) Nifty got total pull back to the level of day high and closed with 20pts gain.  We have to appreciate the strength of the market for which; it is getting support at 8350 repeatedly and closing above this level.   Unless there is any sudden developments, market likely to sustain around 8400 level for some more days.  Once Nifty forced to close below 8300 level (8290/8280) on EOD basis, Market will go in to the control of Bears.

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)  

RPOWER: SELL < 74 TRG 71.80 SL 75.25

                  ACTUAL: LOW:  71.30 HIGH: 7340

YESBANK: SELL < 685 TRG 674 SL 692

                  ACTUAL: LOW: 670.40 HIGH: 683.50

 

JAICORP: SELL < 89.75 TRG 87.25 SL 91

                ACTUAL: LOW: 86.35 HIGH: 89.15

 

BHARTIAIRTEL: BUY > 402 TRG 408 SL 399

                         ACTUAL: LOW: 393.95 HIGH: 405.00 (SL HIT)

 

We wish you all happy successful trades for Tomorrow,

20-11-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING STOCKS:

Yesterday Nifty formed double top  candle and closed in red for second day.   From 3rd November onward Nifty playing within range of 8290 -8455 range, which yesterday also maintained.   Once this levels breaks, we can get clear direction for Nifty.   As we mentioned in our earlier notes, Market is in over bought zone, profit booking is invincible.   As Derivatives' OI bottom range is at 8300 and last 11 days trading range is also between 8300-8450 level, incoming 2 days a swing trade possibilities been seen,  traders should maintain strict SL.

Yesterday FII purchases recorded as positive, due to short coverage that too with out any fresh longs.  FIIs have squared off 8157 short contracts and added 1373 shorts in Index Futures net worth of 106.34 cr by which OI decreased 9530 contracts.   In Equity Segment FIIs are marginal buyers for 71.80cr and DIIs are net seller for 491.26 cr.  Market Breadth weakened after many days.   Rupee also closed at 61.95 with negative points (0.22 ps). As most of the technical indicators closed with negative divergence, total sentiment looks grieved.    PCR maintained its overbought sense with 1.10 pts.  India Vix Positiveness indicate accumulation of Options in the system to hedge the existing equity positions.

Today Nifty likely to open with flat to negative bias in line with our peer markets and continuations to yesterday's spell.  Also, as no much positive data expecting from US & Europe markets, these indices also may not support our market.   As there is possibility of short coverage exercise, market may be volatile.   8300 likely to act as support and 8440/8460 may act as resistance.  Below 8290 we may see down fall much sharper than normal.

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS:

Pivot: 8399

Resistance: 8438/8494/8534

Support: 8343/8304/8248

NIFTY FnO BAN: UNITECH

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)  

RPOWER: SELL < 74 TRG 71.80 SL 75.25

YESBANK: SELL < 685 TRG 674 SL 692

JAICORP: SELL < 89.75 TRG 87.25 SL 91

BHARTIAIRTEL: BUY > 402 TRG 408 SL 399

19-11-2014 DAY PERFORMANCE:

NIFTY PERFORMANCE:

As we expected Nifty went on correction, that too sharper upto 8360 level, which is more than we expected 8400-8480.  As we mentioned in our morning note, FIIs are selling at highs and adding shorts in the system,  Nifty Futures OI is maintaining > 2cr level.   As most of the Indices are in over bought zone, this kind of correction is inevitable and advise to continue trades with strict SL.

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)

CCL: BUY > 137/140 TRG 146/148 SL 140

         ACTUAL: LOW: 143.50 HIGH: 158

 

RIIL: BUY > 529 TRG 544/561 SL 524

          ACTUAL: LOW: 522.10 HIGH: 548.90 (OPENED HIGH AND HIT THE SL)

 

ABAN: SELL < 585 TRG 568 SL 596
             ACTUAL: LOW: 561.20 HIGH: 589

19-11-14 MARKET TECHNICAL VIEW:

MARKET TREND - ROARING SOCKS:

As we mentioned in our yesterday morning and evening notes, market going through consolidation at this level.   Most of the traders are hedging their positions with derivative products and continuing their investment in market. As FIIs are selling at higher level and adding shorts, traders should be cautious with strict SL, to counter the sharper down fall.   Yesterday (after long time) FIIs and DIIs are net sellers in Equity Segment.   FIIs have sold 101.98 cr and DIIs sold 232.42 cr.  In Derivative segment also FIIs are marginal sellers by 10.75.  In Index Futures also they continued as net sellers and they sold 163.86 cr by square-off 10867 long contracts and adding 3250 short contracts by which OI has increased by 14117.   Market Breadth manged positiveness.  Derivatives range intact with in 8300-8500, but active range improved to 8500 from 8400.  PCR maintained its oversold zone and recorded 1.12.  

Today Nifty likely to open flat and play range bound with positive bias till Europe market opens for its guidance.   Market range could be between 8400-8480 for the day, which more advantage for momentum traders with day pivot guidance in view of improved volatility range.

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS:

Pivot 8429

Resistance: 8451/8476/8498

Support: 8404/8391/8356

NIFTY FnO BAN: UNITECH

STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)

CCL: BUY > 137/140 TRG 146/148 SL 140

RIIL: BUY > 529 TRG 544/561 SL 524

ABAN: SELL < 585 TRG 568 SL 596 

18-11-2014 DAY PERFORMANCE: If some thing happens to Mr.Modi.........

NIFTY PERFORMANCE:

Nifty gone through consolidation/profit booking phase, at this level.  Today Nifty played with in range of 47 pts (8407 - 8455) range.  The contrast economic reports from print media, might be putting the professional traders under confusion.  The News like widening of Indian Trade Balance against Improved Economic Report; Japan facing recession against our expectation of much cash inflows from this country, Interest Rate cut pressure to RBI Governor, who wants to be cautious against USD appreciation etc., are may be in debate for most of the professions.   

Another (report in Mint Money) contrast opinion or fear from Mr. Christopher Wood - Managing Director- CLSA, is: "India most attractive Market". In the same time he express the fear of : "The Single biggest risk is; if something happens to Mr. Modi, the market would be down 20% in dollar terms very quickly".

We all should think, is really Indian Share Market is depend only on one person (Mr. Modi)? or his fame and ideology is helping as spring-board to take Market to new levels? 

 STOCKS TO WATCH (POS/DAY BASED ON LEVELS GIVEN)
GULFOIL: SELL < 173 TRG 168 SL 182

                   ACTUAL: LOW: 166 HIGH: 173.40 (CAN EXIT)

PFC: BUY >  290 TRG 295/310 SL 286

         ACTUAL: LOW: 298 HIGH: 309.25 (CAN EXIT)

RECL: BUY > 320 TRG 326/347 SL 314

            ACTUAL: LOW: 328.10 HIGH: 344.25 (CAN EXIT)

B/F CALLS:

ASIAN PAINTS: BUY > 663 TRG 671/683/700 SL 652 (3rd TRG TO 700)

                      17-11-- ACTUAL: LOW: 675 HIGH: 694.75 (PLAYED ABOVE 1ST TRG) CAN HOLD

                      18-11--ACTUAL: LOW: 683.20 HIGH: 703.80 (CAN EXIT)

SAIL: BUY > 84 TRG 89 SL 83 (SL CHANGED TO 83 FROM 81)

        17-11--ACTUAL: LOW: 84 HIGH: 86.30 (CAN HOLD)

        18-11--ACTUAL: LOW: 85 HIGH: 89 (CAN EXIT)

NO CALLS ON B/F