TRICKY COMBINATIONS!

17-04-13

MARKET TREND:

Yesterday our market has shown its own strength.  It was not shaken by market leaders (peers US, CHINA'S) negative news. It has confirmed one more time that, our market will be depend on only on cash flows, rather than wider participation of investors.  From last 3 days Nifty has gained > 160 points and closed above its 200 DMA.  Since highest open interest of Nifty PE & CE are between 5600 and 5700 only market volatility may be reduced and try to consolidate.  

Since commodity prices are in control, inflation is in control, Govt. may concentrate more on cash flows. If Govt dynamically control imports (Gold and Capital Goods) instead of concentrating on cost reduction through Interest cuts, we can generate more corporate value and in return our corporate EPS.  Since Capitalist (Industrialists and Debit Fund Investors) lobby is very strong, RBI may be influenced/convinced to reduce interest cost in its May policy.  

Tricky Combinations: 

Cash Flows - More Strength in Rs. - Export competitiveness Reduced - Forex Loss

Strength in Rs. - Imports will be cheaper - Oil Cost will be reduced - Forex Saving

Interest Reduction - Bond yield increase - Deposit Yield fall - Domestic savings Fall - Increase in other Investments (mostly fixed assets & Bullion)

** MORE EQUITY PARTICIPATION BY OUR DOMESTIC INVESTORS IS BETTER SOLUTION ** This is possible with sustained yields in Equity markets. As common investor we can expect or comment, but all these possible with only Govt. Policies. 

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS:

Pivot: 5648

Resistance: 5740/5791/5885

Support: 5597/5505/5453

NIFTY FnO BAN: HDIL

STOCKS FOR DAY TRADING:

Jindal Steel Eq: Buy > 334 TRG 342 SL 328

Ultateck Eq: Buy > 1885 TRG 1915 SL 1863

STOCKS TO WATCH FOR POSITIONAL:

RECLTD, PFC, IGL, ONGC, IDFC, BIOCON, ULTRACEMCO, CIPLA, ADANIPORTS, LUPIN, HDFC, GODREJIND, DRREDDY, ITC, DABUR, COLPAL, SUNPHARMA, IDEA